

2025年12月30日,经士智库总裁田士臣博士接受CGTN采访,谈“正义使命-2025”和台海问题。以下是采访内容:

CGTN:田士臣是经士智库总裁、中国人民解放军退役海军上校。
CGTN: Tian Shichen is the president of the Global Governance Institution and the former captain in the Chinese Navy.
田士臣:我认为“正义使命-2025”演习有多重目的。首先是对“台独”发出严厉警告。寻求正式分裂是不可接受的,并且会带来重大军事风险。第二是展示中国在解决台湾问题上的政治和军事决心,包括捍卫国家主权和领土完整。当然,这也是对外部军事干涉的警告。除了政治信号,从军事角度讲,这次演习也是为了检验和提高解放军的联合作战能力。
TIAN Shichen: I think the Just Mission 2025 exercise serves multiple objectives. First, one of the primary stated goal is to send a stern warning to Taiwan independence that pursuing formal separation is unacceptable and carries significant military risks. Second is to signal its political and military determination for China to pursue its core objective on Taiwan including safeguarding its national sovereignty and territory integrity. And, of course, it is also a warning against the external military intervention. In addition to political signal,I think military is speaking, this drill also tests and improves PLA join combat capabilities.
CGTN:特朗普总统表示,他不担心这些演习。你如何看待特朗普的反应?
CGTN: President Trump says he’s not worried about these drills. What do you make of Mr. Trump’s reaction?
田士臣:中国有句老话,我们重点要看美国做什么,而不是它说什么。众所周知,美国刚刚发布了国家安全战略。新版国家安全战略重点强调台湾在全球半导体制造业中的关键角色及其关键地理位置。也就是说,该文件将台湾冲突的风险视为核心安全挑战。所以我认为我们将密切关注美国做什么,而非特朗普的口头表态。
TIAN Shichen: I think there is an old saying in China. We will watch what the United States does instead of what it says. As we know, the United States has just released its national security strategy. The new National Security Strategy highlights Taiwan’s critical role in global semiconductor manufacturing and its strategic geography. So, the document places the risk of conflict over Taiwan as a central security challenge. So, I think we will watch closely what the United States does, instead of what Trump says.
CGTN:世界其他国家应该如何看待这些军事演习?
CGTN: How should the rest of the world view these military exercises?
田士臣:对中国来说,一方面,实现祖国统一是中国合法的权利。我认为其中一个对国际社会而言的要点是,大多数国际受众甚至不知道关于台湾的基本事实,即台湾是中国的一部分,无论从历史和法律上讲都是如此。很遗憾当国际受众观看这些军事演习时,他们更受西方媒体的影响,而西方媒体并不了解台湾问题的历史和法律问题。
TIAN Shichen: For China, on the one hand, it is a legitimate right to achieve theunification. I think one of the key points for the international community is that most of the audiences are not aware of the basic fact that Taiwan is a part of China. Historically and legally speaking, it is part of China. So when they watch these military exercises, they are more influenced by the western media, which I think, do not have a clear idea about the history and the legal basis of the Taiwan issue.
CGTN:你认为在什么情况下,中国会对台湾动武?
CGTN: Underwhat circumstances do you think that strikes against Taiwan would take place?
田士臣:动武的门槛儿在2005中国的《反分裂国家法》中已经得到了清晰的阐释。这些通常概括为三个基准:一是“台独” 分裂势力以任何名义、任何方式造成台湾从中国分裂出去的事实,无论这种分裂是法律意义上还是实质意义上的。二是发生将会导致台湾从中国分裂出去的重大事变,即使尚未宣布完全独立。三是和平统一的可能性完全丧失。如果发生以上三种情况,那我们就会使用包括动武在内的任何措施收复台湾。
TIAN Shichen: This kind of benchmark is clearly stated in the China’s Anti-succession Law in 2005. These are commonly summarized as three benchmarks. The first is a formal separation occurs if “Taiwan independence” forces cause Taiwan to secede from China, in the de jure or substantive sense. That is the first sentence benchmark. Second, if a major incident arises that could lead to Taiwan’s separation even if full independence has not yet been declared. And finally, if all possibilities for peaceful reunification are completely exhausted, then we will use force to take back Taiwan.